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CORE INFLATION UNEXPECTEDLY RISES IN AUGUST: MARKETS QUESTION AGGRESSIVE FED RATE CUT

Bad news for those hoping for a highly aggressive rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in August compared to the previous month. This marked the largest increase in four months and a 3.2% year-on-year rise.


A more favorable scenario emerged from overall inflation, where consumer prices in the United States grew by 0.2% from July, as reported by the Labor Department.




This increase was in line with analysts' forecasts after a similar 0.2% rise in the previous month. On an annual basis, overall inflation dropped from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest level since February 2021, slightly exceeding expectations for a decline to 2.6%.


Energy prices fell by 0.8% from the previous month, while food prices rose by 0.1%. On an annual basis, energy costs increased by 4%, while food prices were up 2.1%.


In light of these data, Citigroup revised its forecast for the September rate cut, reducing it from 50 to 25 basis points, as the inflation trend does not justify a more drastic reduction. Following the data release, the Dow Jones fell by 1.38%, the S&P 500 by 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.75%. Market operators had hoped for softer inflation to allow the Fed to opt for a 50 basis point rate cut, but now that possibility seems less likely.

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